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Predicting Decade-Long Changes in Community Motor Vehicle Theft Rates

Impacts of Structure and Surround

Illinois State University, Normal, jawalsh{at}ilstu.edu

Ralph B. Taylor

Temple University, Philadelphia, PA

Motor vehicle theft (MVT) is arguably the most underresearched Part I crime. This work predicts long-term changes in community MVT rates, extrapolating from earlier work in community fabric and changing personal crime and delinquency rates and cross-sectional work on MVT. Police data on MVTs generated MVT rates in one Midwestern city in 1990-1991 and 2000-2001 that were linked with census block group data. MVT rates went up later in communities more racially mixed initially and in those surrounded by initially higher MVT rates, suggesting extant community structure and surrounding crime generate subsequently unfolding impacts on MVT. A second series of models links changing MVT rates with contemporaneously increasing racial heterogeneity, decreasing community instability, and increasing surrounding MVT rates. Some associations between community structure and changing delinquency or crime appear relevant to shifting MVT rates. Resident-based, target-linked, and offender-dependent processes to be investigated are outlined.

Key Words: motor vehicle theft • communities and crime • ecology • spatial dependence

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